Oct. 19th, 2016

plutherus: (de la Mancha)
Well, it should be starting by now.
I may or may not live blog it again.
Eventually.
Right now I'm sitting in a small Italian restaurant listening to pink Floyd and San Francisco traffic waiting for my dinner to be made to I can carry it back to my hotel room to eat while arching the debate.
Or what's left of it.
plutherus: (de la Mancha)
Well, he's sniffing a lot again.
Can't get video yet, but I have audio....

And now I don't.
plutherus: (de la Mancha)
I'm not sure deflecting the wikileaks email to Russian espionage is the winning strategy for Hillary here.

I would have said something like "Yes, I did say that was my dream. And it's a good dream. It's not a practical reality yet. Some of us understand the difference between what we'd like and reality."
plutherus: (de la Mancha)
"I don't know Putin. I don't know Putin!"

We can't create warheads, and Russia can?

She has been outsmarted by Putin, unlike me. I can outsmart Putin, because I don't know anything about him.
plutherus: (de la Mancha)
"She took that to mean nuclear weapons" "I never said nuclear"
True, except for the times where he did.
plutherus: (de la Mancha)
Economy:
Hillary: Debt-free college, raise the minimum wage, equal pay for women.

Donald: Her plan is going to double your taxes. Japan, German, Saudi Arabia, and NATO aren't paying. They are now, because of me. Also, the Obama Regime has doubled the national debt. And I can make great deals. No word on how any of this is going to work or what his plan is.

Hillary points out in response that last time we used her plan, we went from a 300 billion deficit to a 200 billion surplus. And cutting taxes on the wealthy has never worked.
plutherus: (de la Mancha)
Ugh. This is just annoying. Let me sum up the rest of it.

Moderator: Question?
Hillary: A bunch of policy points and specific plans.
Donald: A long stream of nonsense and bullshit. And sniffing.
plutherus: (de la Mancha)
No, Donald, "denied" is not the same thing as "debunked".

They're on tape paying people $1500 to cause violence and telling them to go to Trump rallies and be violent? uhh.....

No violence from his people. Sure.

Oh, yeah, this was his response to all the women who've come forth and accused him of actually doing the sexual assault he's bragged about doing.

"Nobody has more respect for women than I do. Nobody."
Moderator steps in to stop the audience laughter.

Also, she destroyed 33,000 emails.

Hillary brings it back to the question, ignored the email and attacks him again for attacking the disabled reporter, the Khans, McCain, Miss Universe, the Hispanic judge, etc., and points out the pattern.

Donald: No, she caused the violence. She caused all the violence.
plutherus: (de la Mancha)
What about the Clinton Foundation? Did they pay for access?
She ignores that part, and talks about the good the foundation has done.

Donald brings up Haiti: Why didn't they help?
Hillary: We did. Why did you spend your donated money to buy a giant portrait of yourself. "Who does that?"

"Wasn't some of the money used from your foundation to settle your lawsuit?"
Donald: That money went to Fisher House. (So it's OK?")

"Will you except the results of this election?"
"I'll look at it at the time. " Continues to insist it's being rigged. None of this is coming from him. Ask anybody. Lots of people know this. Ask them.
plutherus: (de la Mancha)
Donald: "I'm not necessarily saying you're going to be the loser" except he totally is.

Hillary: He always says everything is rigged against him, every time he loses. Brings up FBI investigation, lawsuits, and even an Emmy.

Donald's response: it's rigged. The FBI investigation was rigged.
plutherus: (de la Mancha)
Iraq:

Hillary: No occupying force in Iraq. Good for them taking back Mosul, we will continue to support them, but never again enter as an occupying force.

Moderator: What would you do about ISIS in Iraq?

Donald: It's Hillary's fault we lost Mosul.
Goes on about his "element of surprise" - making it obvious he has no idea what that actually means.
And that Hillary never should have invaded Iraq in the first place.

Hillary says she did vote for it. And was wrong to do so. (She calls it a "mistake" rather than a cowardly political move that I'd call it.) Points out again that he was also for it.
plutherus: (de la Mancha)
Wow. Moderator actually said that things Donald said in the last debate was not true. He denies it.

Donald's response: Aleppo was Hillary's fault. Because Assad is smarter than her and Obama.

Also, she's allowing tens of thousands of Syrian refugees with no vetting and most of them are definitely ISIS aligned.

Moderator: What about Hillary's suggestion of a no-fly zone? Obama is against it. What happens if a Russian plane violates that?

Hillary: This is something that would be negotiated, not just implemented.
Also points out that we do vet refugees, but we are not going to close the door completely.

Donald: She can't defeat ISIS. Only he is smart enough. But he won't say how. But it's Hillary's fault.
plutherus: (de la Mancha)
National Debt:
Under Hillary, it would rise.
Under Donald, it would rise even more.

Donald: They're wrong. My plan will work better than anything. It'll be tremendous. Also, he is very smart. His people are very smart. People will go back to work and make a lot of money. Trust him.

Hillary: Basically, she points out he's a narcissist and out of touch with reality. "Only he can fix it" is nonsense.

Last question: Biggest driver of our debt is entitlements. Neither of you have a serious reponse to Medicare and Social Security being about to run out of money. Can you fix it?

Donald: The economy is going to be great. Yuge. Repeal Obamacare. So, nothing to fix it, other than it'll be magically fixed when America is Great Again.

Hillary: Increase money in Social Security trust fund. No cutting benefits. Enhance them. No $20 trillion national debt like Donald wants.
Also, ACA extended the solvency of Medicare trust fund.

Moderator: Closing statements. Fun because it's not prepared.
Hillary: Will protect and grow families.

Donald: I will Make America Great again. Our military is depleted. Too much money going to entitlements for illegal immigrants instead of veterans. Also, we will make people respect the police again.
plutherus: (de la Mancha)
And that's it. Went about like expected. Hillary talked policy, and attacked Donald for being a nasty piece of shit. Donald said really she's the nasty one and couldn't even begin to explain how any of his policies would work. "Trust me" "It's a secret".

The fact that anyone can take this sniffing clown seriously is beyond me. I'm not sure what's worse, that he claims he has a fool proof plan for defeating ISIS but he can't tell anyone because it's a secret but trust him it's brilliant, or the fact that there are actually people who believe such nonsense.

Not to mention everything else. I wonder what the genesis is of that "$1500" that Hillary's people paid people to cause violence at his rallies. Is that just bizarre spin on something that actually happened, or is it made up whole cloth? His statements tend to be a mixture of those two things.

Hillary's foundation being used to purchase access? That probably happens. I would be surprised if it did not. Would be better if it didn't, but it probably does. And all the money in it goes to charitable work. Not ideal, but it's not worse than Donald's foundation being used purely to launder money for Donald and buy giant gaudy crap to flatter himself with. Oh, and also very blatantly used to purchase access to Donald.

The content of Hillary's emails mostly show a politician. The emails show a lot of political maneuvering, and a lot of behind the scenes deals. Which is what politics is. Also, a lack of respect for Bernie's followers, characterizing them as out of touch dreamers who are mostly unemployed people with middle class parents. I disagree, but it hardly disqualifies her from the presidency.

Donald on the other hand is a racist misogynist idiot who regularly incites violence, constantly claims he's never said or done things he's been recorded saying or doing, makes things up, has been a crooked businessman his whole life. He's been investigated even more than Hillary, but unlike her has been found guilty numerous times, losing dozens of lawsuits and settling hundreds out of court. And, often, bragging about the laws he's broken shortly before he turns around and claims that he has no idea where his opposition gets these claims that he's broken them.

So we have a well qualified but mostly status quo politician on one side versus a game show host who has openly bragged that he's always going to use any laws he can to benefit only himself no matter who gets crushed in the mean time. Oh, and that he's going to somehow Make America Great again, but has no specific policies other than Build a Wall and Defeat ISIS With A Secret Plan.

That fact that this buffoon has any supporters at all is a sad commentary on the state of education and the lack of critical thinking ability in this country.
plutherus: (de la Mancha)
OK, so maybe I'll talk a little bit more about it.

So, what's going to happen? Let's assume for a moment that Hillary wins. What happens? Trump claims the election was stolen. Alex Jones, Rush Limbaugh, Franklin Graham, and the usual cast of characters chime in with their usual wacky conspiracy theories supporting him, desperately trying to get their voices heard and seem relevant. (Maybe Rush Limbaugh retires, finally realizing that the field he pioneered has been completely taken over by younger people who are better at it than he is. But that's not important right now.) For the most part, they don't do much damage. Maybe there's another Ruby Ridge or Waco type incident. Or more likely another Columbine, or Oklahoma City. Regardless, a few hundred people are killed in the name of Protecting America Against Tyranny and the comment sections of youtube and breitbart fill up with angry incoherent rants.

Donald finds his brand is not worth as much as he had hoped - his entire run for president I think was a desperate effort to save his failing name, and it backfired rather spectacularly. So, he slowly fades into irrelevance as well, occasionally doing radio talk shows and youtube videos. All the pending lawsuits are settled out of court, and criminal charges quietly dropped.

What's a Hillary presidency look like? Much like Bill's did. Economy improves somewhat. Expansion of Obamacare, but we don't get single payer. Violence in the middle east continues, ebbs and flows, but doesn't escalate dramatically. She'll have some big program, hopefully an infrastructure improvement, that creates a lot of jobs. Housing crisis gets worse. A few international corporations get even richer by buying up more and more American real estate and charging people outlandish rent for them. By and large, things keep going the way they are. Some things get a little bit, but not dramatically, better. A few things get a little bit, but not dramatically worse.

What if Donald wins? Well, we probably won't actually launch immediately into World War 3. Some people will feel emboldened to commit more violence against women and minorities. Some few will act on the threats they've already been making "If Trump wins, then we'll show them!" Donald won't openly encourage such things, but will do nothing to discourage it either. So, more violence across America, but not an order of magnitude more. The FBI will be nearly overwhelmed monitoring right-wing hate groups and trying to prevent massacres. They'll prevent several and miss a few.

For the most part, Donald will talk about how great he is, but not be actively involved in his own presidency. Much like Bush, power will be held, with high turnover, by the sycophants around him, each trying to carve out their own little fiefdom. A bunch of billionaires will continue to loot the nation the way Cheney and Kissinger and their friends have done. A few trillion dollars will go missing and our infrastructure will continue to collapse. America will slide further into third world status, airports will close and the Interstate system will start to shut down as more and more of it gets unpaved. But there'll be no big economic collapse and we won't end up in a Mad Max movie. People who have money already will do OK, those who don't will be hit even harder. More homeless and Americans' average life span will go down even more. The national debt will continue to rise and social services will be cut even more.

It won't be the end of the world, but it'll suck. A lot of people who could have had brilliant careers in the arts or sciences or technology will end up working menial jobs to stay afloat.

China and Europe will both send manned missions to Mars and a bunch of Americans will think to themselves "Didn't we used to do stuff like that?"

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